Publications

Authors:

Haeuser, Emily; Byrne, Sam; Nguyen, Jason; Raggi, Catalina; Mclaughlin, Susan A; Bisignano, Catherine; Harris, Ashley A; Smith, Amanda E; Lindstedt, Paulina A; Smith, Georgia; Herold, Samuel James; Nesbit, Olivia D; Noyes, Taylor; Shalev, Noga; Olana, Latera Tesfaye; Aalipour, Mohammad Amin; Aalruz, Hasan; Abbasifard, Mitra; Abbaspour, Faezeh; Abbastabar, Hedayat; Abd Elhafeez, Samar; Abdallah, Emad M.; Abdel-Hameed, Reda; Abdelkader, Atef; Abd-Elsalam, Sherief; Abdisa, Wakgari Mosisa; Abdoun, Meriem; Abdous, Arman; Abdulah, Deldar Morad; Abdullahi, Adam; Abdullahi, Auwal; Abdul-Rahman, Toufik; Abdykerimova, Kulmira; Abedi, Armita; Abejew, Asrat Agalu; Abeldaño Zuñiga, Roberto Ariel; Abidi, Syed Hani; Abiodun, Olumide; Abo Kasem, Rahim; Aboagye, Richard Gyan; Abolhassani, Hassan; Abonie, Ulric Sena; Aborode, Abdullahi Tunde; Abourashed, Nagah Mohamed; Abouzid, Mohamed; Abramov, Dmitry; Abreu, Lucas Guimarães; Abtahi, Dariush; Abu Farha, Rana Kamal; Abubakar, Bilyaminu; Abu-Gharbieh, Eman; Abukhadijah, Hana J; Aburuz, Salahdein; Acharya, Anirudh Balakrishna; Achore, Meshack; Acuna, Juan Manuel; Adal, Ousman; Adams, Lisa C.; Adamu, Abdu A; Adebisi, Tajudeen Adesanmi; Adedia, David; Adedokun, Kamoru Ademola; Adegbile, Oluwatobi Emmanuel; Adegboye, Oyelola A; Adegoke, Nurudeen A; Adeleke, Olumide Thomas; Adetunji, Juliana Bunmi; Adhana, Mache Tsadik; Adhikary, Ripon Kumar; Adiga, Usha; Adnan, Mohd; Adnani, Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah; Adoma, Prince Owusu; Adzigbli, Leticia Akua; Affinito, Giuseppina; Afolabi, Aanuoluwapo Adeyimika; Afolabi, Habeeb Abiodun; Afolabi, Rotimi Felix; Afzal, Saira; Agampodi, Suneth Buddhika; Agarwal, Dhiraj Motilal; Aghajanian, Sepehr; Aguilera Arriagada, Constanza Elizabeth; Agyemang-Duah, Williams; Ahadi, Mahsa; Ahmad, Aqeel; Ahmad, Danish; Ahmad, Khurshid; Ahmad, Rabbiya; Ahmad, Shoaib; Ahmad, Tauseef; Ahmed, Ayman; Ahmed, Haroon; Ahmed, Meqdad Saleh; Ahmed, Muktar Beshir; Ahmed, Mushood; Ahmed, Naveed; Ahmed, Syed Anees; Ajakwe, Simeon Okechukwu; Ajala, Dolapo Emmanuel; Akalu, Gizachew Taddesse; Akeju, Oluwasefunmi; Akhigbe, Roland Eghoghosoa; Akinosoglou, Karolina; Akkaif, Mohammed Ahmed; Akram, Hammad; Akrami, Ashley E; Al Amiry, Alaa; Al Awaidy, Salah; Al Hamad, Hanadi; Al Nawayseh, Mohammad Khaled; Al Omari, Omar; Al Thaher, Yazan; Al Zaabi, Omar Ali Mohammed; Al Zoubi, Mohammad Ahmmad Mahmoud; Al-Ajlouni, Yazan; Al-Aly, Ziyad; Alam, Khurshid; Alam, Mohammad Khursheed; Alam, Nazmul; Al-amer, Rasmieh Mustafa; Alanzi, Turki M; Alao, Jude Oluwapelumi; Al-Ashwal, Fahmi Y.; Albashtawy, Mohammed; Albataineh, Mohammad T; Aldhahir, Abdulelah Mastour; Aldossary, Mohammed S; Aleidi, Shereen M.; Alemayehu, Tekletsadik Tekleslassie; Al-Eyadhy, Ayman; Alfalki, Ali M; Algahtani, Fahad D; Algammal, Abdelazeem M; Alhumaidi, Ashraf; Ali, Abid; Ali, Irfan; Ali, Liaqat; Ali, Mohammad Daud; Ali, Rafat; Ali, Shahid; Ali, Syed Shujait; Al-Iede, Montaha; Alif, Sheikh Mohammad; Alinejad Rokny, Hamid; Alipour, Morteza; Al-Jabi, Samah W; Al-Jumaily, Adel; Alkhatib, Ahmad; Alkhawam, Mustafa; Allouh, Mohammed Z.; Almagharbeh, Wesam Taher; Al-Marwani, Sabah; Almazan, Joseph Uy; Al-Mekhlafi, Hesham M; Almobayed, Amr; Alniss, Hasan Yaser; Alosta, Mohammad R.; Alqahtani, Jaber S; Alqudimat, Mohammad R.; Alqutaibi, Ahmed Yaseen; Alrawashdeh, Ahmad; Al-Rifai, Rami H; Alrimawi, Intima; Alrousan, Sahel Majed; Alsabri, Mohammed A; Altaany, Zaid; Al-Tammemi, Alaa B.; Al-Tawfiq, Jaffar A; Althobiani, Malik A; Altirkawi, Khalid A; Alvis-Guzman, Nelson; Alvis-Zakzuk, Nelson J; Alwafi, Hassan; Al-Wardat, Mohammad; Al-Worafi, Yaser Mohammed; Aly, Hany; Alyahya, Mohammad Sharif Ibrahim; Alzoubi, Abdallah; Alzoubi, Karem H; Al-Zubayer, Md. Akib; Amafah, Ekiyor Joseph; Amin, Amr; Amini, Saeed; Aminu, Nafiu; Amobonye, Ayodeji; Amugsi, Dickson A; Anagnostakis, Filippos; Anderson, Michael; Ang, Song Peng; Anh, Nguyen Hoang; Anil, Abhishek; Anjorin, Abdul-Azeez Adeyemi; Ansariniya, Hossein; Ant

Title:

Global, regional, and national trends in routine childhood vaccination coverage from 1980 to 2023 with forecasts to 2030: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023

Year:

2025

Type of item:

Articolo in Rivista

Tipologia ANVUR:

Articolo su rivista

Language:

Inglese

Referee:

Sì

Name of journal:

Lancet

ISSN of journal:

0140-6736

N° Volume:

406

Number or Folder:

10500

Page numbers:

235-260

Keyword:

GBD, Global Burden of Disease, Childhood vaccination

Short description of contents:

Background: Since its inception in 1974, the Essential Programme on Immunization (EPI) has achieved remarkable success, averting the deaths of an estimated 154 million children worldwide through routine childhood vaccination. However, more recent decades have seen persistent coverage inequities and stagnating progress, which have been further amplified by the COVID-19 pandemic. In 2019, WHO set ambitious goals for improving vaccine coverage globally through the Immunization Agenda 2030 (IA2030). Now halfway through the decade, understanding past and recent coverage trends can help inform and reorient strategies for approaching these aims in the next 5 years. Methods: Based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2023, this study provides updated global, regional, and national estimates of routine childhood vaccine coverage from 1980 to 2023 for 204 countries and territories for 11 vaccine-dose combinations recommended by WHO for all children globally. Employing advanced modelling techniques, this analysis accounts for data biases and heterogeneity and integrates new methodologies to model vaccine scale-up and COVID-19 pandemic-related disruptions. To contextualise historic coverage trends and gains still needed to achieve the IA2030 coverage targets, we supplement these results with several secondary analyses: (1) we assess the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on vaccine coverage; (2) we forecast coverage of select life-course vaccines up to 2030; and (3) we analyse progress needed to reduce the number of zero-dose children by half between 2023 and 2030. Findings: Overall, global coverage for the original EPI vaccines against diphtheria, tetanus, and pertussis (first dose [DTP1] and third dose [DTP3]), measles (MCV1), polio (Pol3), and tuberculosis (BCG) nearly doubled from 1980 to 2023. However, this long-term trend masks recent challenges. Coverage gains slowed between 2010 and 2019 in many countries and territories, including declines in 21 of 36 high-income countries and territories for at least one of these vaccine doses (excluding BCG, which has been removed from routine immunisation schedules in some countries and territories). The COVID-19 pandemic exacerbated these challenges, with global rates for these vaccines declining sharply since 2020, and still not returning to pre-COVID-19 pandemic levels as of 2023. Coverage for newer vaccines developed and introduced in more recent years, such as immunisations against pneumococcal disease (PCV3) and rotavirus (complete series; RotaC) and a second dose of the measles vaccine (MCV2), saw continued increases globally during the COVID-19 pandemic due to ongoing introductions and scale-ups, but at slower rates than expected in the absence of the pandemic. Forecasts to 2030 for DTP3, PCV3, and MCV2 suggest that only DTP3 would reach the IA2030 target of 90% global coverage, and only under an optimistic scenario. The number of zero-dose children, proxied as children younger than 1 year who do not receive DTP1, decreased by 74·9% (95% uncertainty interval 72·1-77·3) globally between 1980 and 2019, with most of those declines reached during the 1980s and the 2000s. After 2019, counts of zero-dose children rose to a COVID 19-era peak of 18·6 million (17·6-20·0) in 2021. Most zero-dose children remain concentrated in conflict-affected regions and those with various constraints on resources available to put towards vaccination services, particularly sub-Saharan Africa. As of 2023, more than 50% of the 15·7 million (14·6-17·0) global zero-dose children resided in just eight countries (Nigeria, India, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Somalia, Sudan, Indonesia, and Brazil), emphasising persistent inequities. Interpretation: Our estimates of current vaccine coverage and forecasts to 2030 suggest that achieving IA2030 targets, such as halving zero-dose children compared with 2019 levels and reaching 90% g

Web page:

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140673625010372

Product ID:

146689

Handle IRIS:

11562/1166867

Last Modified:

August 7, 2025

Bibliographic citation:

Haeuser, Emily; Byrne, Sam; Nguyen, Jason; Raggi, Catalina; Mclaughlin, Susan A; Bisignano, Catherine; Harris, Ashley A; Smith, Amanda E; Lindstedt, Paulina A; Smith, Georgia; Herold, Samuel James; Nesbit, Olivia D; Noyes, Taylor; Shalev, Noga; Olana, Latera Tesfaye; Aalipour, Mohammad Amin; Aalruz, Hasan; Abbasifard, Mitra; Abbaspour, Faezeh; Abbastabar, Hedayat; Abd Elhafeez, Samar; Abdallah, Emad M.; Abdel-Hameed, Reda; Abdelkader, Atef; Abd-Elsalam, Sherief; Abdisa, Wakgari Mosisa; Abdoun, Meriem; Abdous, Arman; Abdulah, Deldar Morad; Abdullahi, Adam; Abdullahi, Auwal; Abdul-Rahman, Toufik; Abdykerimova, Kulmira; Abedi, Armita; Abejew, Asrat Agalu; Abeldaño Zuñiga, Roberto Ariel; Abidi, Syed Hani; Abiodun, Olumide; Abo Kasem, Rahim; Aboagye, Richard Gyan; Abolhassani, Hassan; Abonie, Ulric Sena; Aborode, Abdullahi Tunde; Abourashed, Nagah Mohamed; Abouzid, Mohamed; Abramov, Dmitry; Abreu, Lucas Guimarães; Abtahi, Dariush; Abu Farha, Rana Kamal; Abubakar, Bilyaminu; Abu-Gharbieh, Eman; Abukhadijah, Hana J; Aburuz, Salahdein; Acharya, Anirudh Balakrishna; Achore, Meshack; Acuna, Juan Manuel; Adal, Ousman; Adams, Lisa C.; Adamu, Abdu A; Adebisi, Tajudeen Adesanmi; Adedia, David; Adedokun, Kamoru Ademola; Adegbile, Oluwatobi Emmanuel; Adegboye, Oyelola A; Adegoke, Nurudeen A; Adeleke, Olumide Thomas; Adetunji, Juliana Bunmi; Adhana, Mache Tsadik; Adhikary, Ripon Kumar; Adiga, Usha; Adnan, Mohd; Adnani, Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah; Adoma, Prince Owusu; Adzigbli, Leticia Akua; Affinito, Giuseppina; Afolabi, Aanuoluwapo Adeyimika; Afolabi, Habeeb Abiodun; Afolabi, Rotimi Felix; Afzal, Saira; Agampodi, Suneth Buddhika; Agarwal, Dhiraj Motilal; Aghajanian, Sepehr; Aguilera Arriagada, Constanza Elizabeth; Agyemang-Duah, Williams; Ahadi, Mahsa; Ahmad, Aqeel; Ahmad, Danish; Ahmad, Khurshid; Ahmad, Rabbiya; Ahmad, Shoaib; Ahmad, Tauseef; Ahmed, Ayman; Ahmed, Haroon; Ahmed, Meqdad Saleh; Ahmed, Muktar Beshir; Ahmed, Mushood; Ahmed, Naveed; Ahmed, Syed Anees; Ajakwe, Simeon Okechukwu; Ajala, Dolapo Emmanuel; Akalu, Gizachew Taddesse; Akeju, Oluwasefunmi; Akhigbe, Roland Eghoghosoa; Akinosoglou, Karolina; Akkaif, Mohammed Ahmed; Akram, Hammad; Akrami, Ashley E; Al Amiry, Alaa; Al Awaidy, Salah; Al Hamad, Hanadi; Al Nawayseh, Mohammad Khaled; Al Omari, Omar; Al Thaher, Yazan; Al Zaabi, Omar Ali Mohammed; Al Zoubi, Mohammad Ahmmad Mahmoud; Al-Ajlouni, Yazan; Al-Aly, Ziyad; Alam, Khurshid; Alam, Mohammad Khursheed; Alam, Nazmul; Al-amer, Rasmieh Mustafa; Alanzi, Turki M; Alao, Jude Oluwapelumi; Al-Ashwal, Fahmi Y.; Albashtawy, Mohammed; Albataineh, Mohammad T; Aldhahir, Abdulelah Mastour; Aldossary, Mohammed S; Aleidi, Shereen M.; Alemayehu, Tekletsadik Tekleslassie; Al-Eyadhy, Ayman; Alfalki, Ali M; Algahtani, Fahad D; Algammal, Abdelazeem M; Alhumaidi, Ashraf; Ali, Abid; Ali, Irfan; Ali, Liaqat; Ali, Mohammad Daud; Ali, Rafat; Ali, Shahid; Ali, Syed Shujait; Al-Iede, Montaha; Alif, Sheikh Mohammad; Alinejad Rokny, Hamid; Alipour, Morteza; Al-Jabi, Samah W; Al-Jumaily, Adel; Alkhatib, Ahmad; Alkhawam, Mustafa; Allouh, Mohammed Z.; Almagharbeh, Wesam Taher; Al-Marwani, Sabah; Almazan, Joseph Uy; Al-Mekhlafi, Hesham M; Almobayed, Amr; Alniss, Hasan Yaser; Alosta, Mohammad R.; Alqahtani, Jaber S; Alqudimat, Mohammad R.; Alqutaibi, Ahmed Yaseen; Alrawashdeh, Ahmad; Al-Rifai, Rami H; Alrimawi, Intima; Alrousan, Sahel Majed; Alsabri, Mohammed A; Altaany, Zaid; Al-Tammemi, Alaa B.; Al-Tawfiq, Jaffar A; Althobiani, Malik A; Altirkawi, Khalid A; Alvis-Guzman, Nelson; Alvis-Zakzuk, Nelson J; Alwafi, Hassan; Al-Wardat, Mohammad; Al-Worafi, Yaser Mohammed; Aly, Hany; Alyahya, Mohammad Sharif Ibrahim; Alzoubi, Abdallah; Alzoubi, Karem H; Al-Zubayer, Md. Akib; Amafah, Ekiyor Joseph; Amin, Amr; Amini, Saeed; Aminu, Nafiu; Amobonye, Ayodeji; Amugsi, Dickson A; Anagnostakis, Filippos; Anderson, Michael; Ang, Song Peng; Anh, Nguyen Hoang; Anil, Abhishek; Anjorin, Abdul-Azeez Adeyemi; Ansariniya, Hossein; Ant, Global, regional, and national trends in routine childhood vaccination coverage from 1980 to 2023 with forecasts to 2030: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023 «Lancet» , vol. 406 , n. 10500 , 2025 , pp. 235-260

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